Indian equities may return 12-13% in Samvat 2083, says Bandhan AMC's Manish Gunwani

What happened

Manish Gunwani, Bandhan AMC’s equity chief investment officer, said Indian equities could return around 12–13% in Samvat 2083. He cautioned that the next two to three quarters may be difficult, while seeing manufacturing exporters as an opportunity over three to five years.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

A difficult near-term period could test investors’ willingness to hold shares, while the longer-term return outlook rests on company earnings and sustained growth. Gunwani expects large-company earnings to grow about 10–11% over the medium term, roughly in line with overall economic growth.

Analyst inference

Gunwani said more attractive valuations may be offset by crude prices, monsoon conditions, geopolitical developments and AI’s expanding role, all of which could contribute to market volatility. He also warned that AI-related computing needs could increase services imports and moderate India’s services export growth.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Watch whether crude oil prices, monsoon conditions and geopolitical developments become more challenging, since Gunwani identified them as factors that could keep Indian shares volatile. Analyst inference
2. Track whether large-company earnings grow near the roughly 10–11% medium-term pace Gunwani expects, as weaker growth would challenge his earnings outlook. Analyst inference
3. Look for signs that AI adoption moderates services export growth or increases services imports, and whether manufacturing exporters deliver the sustainable growth Gunwani sees as an opportunity. Analyst inference

Evidence

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