TTF winter 2026-27 gas strip may hit €154/MWh if LNG facilities are hit, Citi says

What happened

Citi estimates the TTF winter 2026-27 gas strip would be €85/MWh if escalation occurs without liquefaction facilities being hit, and could reach about €154/MWh if facilities were hit. Citi says this compares with a no-escalation price of €60 to €70/MWh.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Higher gas prices raise costs for utilities and factories that burn gas, which can squeeze profit per sale and reduce cash available for capital spending. Investors holding energy-intensive companies may see earnings fall as fuel bills rise.

Analyst inference

The forecast frames a wide range, from €60-€70/MWh in calm conditions to about €154/MWh in the worst case. That gap can shift investor positioning toward gas producers and away from heavy gas users.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Citi's no-escalation case puts the TTF winter 2026-27 strip in the €60 to €70/MWh range. Confirmed
2. Citi's escalation case without liquefaction facilities being hit assumes a strip of €85/MWh, about $28/MMBtu. Proposed
3. Watch whether liquefaction facilities are actually hit, because that scenario would push prices toward €154/MWh and raise costs. Analyst inference

Evidence

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