CLARITY Act odds stay under 35% as Republicans push for Senate vote

What happened

Bettors on Polymarket are giving the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act a below‑even chance—under 35%—of passing this year, even though Republicans are urging a Senate vote while Democrats block it over concerns it won’t stop President Trump from profiting from crypto.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If the CLARITY Act passes, it could set rules that limit how political figures profit from digital assets, affecting market transparency and possibly prompting broader crypto regulation. Its failure keeps regulatory uncertainty high for investors.

Analyst inference

The low odds reflect ongoing partisan disagreement, leaving crypto markets without clear guidance. Investors remain cautious as the bill’s outcome will influence future legislative approaches to digital‑asset oversight and compliance costs.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Republican efforts to schedule a Senate vote – a successful vote could raise the bill’s odds and signal legislative momentum. Proposed
2. Democratic opposition focusing on the bill’s ability to restrict President Trump’s crypto earnings – continued stonewalling could keep odds low. Proposed
3. Changes in Polymarket betting odds – shifts may reveal how market participants perceive political developments and regulatory risk. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• ACT — Act I The AI Prophecy

Evidence

• cryptopolitan.com