Bitcoin's $85,000 recovery awaits proof that ETF investors kept buying after payrolls

What happened

Bitcoin's recovery to $85,000 depends on proof that exchange-traded fund investors kept buying after payrolls, based on the supplied title. Glassnode estimated the probability of an additional quarter-point rate hike at the Oct. 28 meeting fell to 22% by 15:00 UTC on Oct. 2, down from 66% on Sept. 28.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Lower odds of another quarter-point rate hike, which means a smaller increase in the cost of borrowed money, can support Bitcoin and other assets by making safer income investments less attractive. That matters because ETF investors, who buy funds that hold Bitcoin, may keep buying if they expect easier money conditions.

Analyst inference

A drop from 66% to 22% shows traders quickly lowered the chance of tighter money after payrolls data. Bitcoin's move toward $85,000 still needs ETF buying to confirm it, because price recovery without steady fund demand can fade if rate fears return or economic data shift.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch the Oct. 28 meeting outcome, because Glassnode tracked a quarter-point rate hike probability moving from 66% on Sept. 28 to 22% by Oct. 2 at 15:00 UTC. Confirmed
2. Track whether Bitcoin ETF investors keep adding money after payrolls, since the title says the $85,000 recovery awaits proof that they kept buying following that jobs report. Proposed
3. Watch Bitcoin's price around $85,000, because holding that level may depend on ETF demand continuing; a drop in buying could show the recovery lacks a firm base. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• BTC — Bitcoin
• 00 — 00 Token

Evidence

• cryptoslate.com