Radian Group (RDN) reports Q3: everything you need to know ahead of earnings

What happened

Radian Group, a mortgage insurance provider, will report its third-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon. Last quarter it reported revenue of $580.7 million, up 95.7% year on year, but missed analysts' earnings-per-share estimates significantly.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

The market expects Radian's revenue to grow 107% year on year this quarter, a sharp reversal from the 1.6% decrease a year earlier. Because Radian missed profit estimates last quarter even while meeting revenue expectations, investors may focus more on earnings than on sales growth.

Analyst inference

Two property and casualty insurance peers have already reported results, with Markel Group revenue up 5.7% and RLI up 5.3%, both beating estimates. Analysts have kept Radian's estimates unchanged over the last 30 days, suggesting they expect the business to stay on course.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Radian reports third-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, and the market expects revenue to grow 107% year on year; watch whether the actual figure meets that expectation. Confirmed
2. Watch whether Radian's profit per sale improves after last quarter's significant miss of analysts' earnings-per-share estimates, since investors may weigh earnings more heavily than revenue. Analyst inference
3. Watch whether Radian's shares react like peers Markel Group, up 1.2%, and RLI, up 2.5%, after results, which could show how investors view the insurance segment. Analyst inference

Evidence

• stockstory.org