Can Chili's Keep Growing? Brinker Earnings to Put Comeback to the Test. — Barrons.com

What happened

Brinker International, owner of Chili's and Maggiano's, will report fiscal first-quarter results Wednesday before the market opens. Analysts polled by FactSet expect adjusted earnings of $2.45 a share, up 27%, and revenue of about $1.46 billion, up roughly 8%.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Chili's turnaround has been a rare restaurant success, and this report tests whether it can continue. Slower sales and traffic growth mean investors will judge whether affordable meals and viral menu items still bring in diners as growth cools.

Analyst inference

Many restaurant chains have struggled to attract diners, yet Chili's comparable sales rose 9.2% in fiscal 2026. Growth has moderated sharply from above 20% last year, so expectations for the September quarter sit at a 7.5% comparable sales gain.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Chili's traffic growth slowed from 16% in fiscal 2025 to just 1.5% in the late period, so watch whether customer visits keep slowing or stabilize. Confirmed
2. Watch whether Brinker's affordable meal deals and viral menu items continue drawing younger customers, which would support revenue and profit per sale. Proposed
3. Watch whether restaurant industry cost pressures and softer traffic push Brinker to spend more on promotions, which could weigh on profit per sale. Analyst inference

Evidence

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