Nomura: H1 earnings rose strongly, but Q2 profit fell QoQ and uncertainty kept guidance on hold

What happened

Nomura's first-half net revenue rose 24.6% year on year and shareholder net income rose 26.8%, while expenses grew 26.0%. Wealth Management, Investment Management and Wholesale all delivered higher pretax income, but the company issued no earnings forecast because of market uncertainty.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Strong first-half growth shows Nomura's main businesses earned more before tax, which supports profit. But costs rose almost as fast as revenue, and skipping a forecast makes future results harder to plan for, so investors face more uncertainty about upcoming quarters.

Analyst inference

The summary notes second-quarter profit fell compared with the first quarter, showing momentum weakened within the half. Withheld guidance signals that management cannot reliably predict markets, which may make investors more cautious about valuing the stock.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. First-half revenue grew 24.6% and net income 26.8%, while expenses rose 26.0%; watch whether cost growth slows so profit can keep rising. Confirmed
2. Watch for Nomura to issue an earnings forecast once market uncertainty eases, which would give investors a clearer view of expected revenue and profit. Proposed
3. Watch whether Wealth Management, Investment Management and Wholesale keep delivering higher pretax income, since these three businesses drove the first-half improvement in profit. Analyst inference

Evidence

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