🇺🇸 NOW: The odds of a Fed rate hike in September fell to 40.1%, down from 48.4% a day ago, per CME FedWatch.

What happened

The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September dropped to forty‑point‑one percent, down from forty‑eight‑point‑four percent just a day earlier.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

A lower probability suggests investors think the Fed may pause raising rates, which can push Treasury yields lower, make borrowing cheaper for businesses and consumers, and support higher stock prices as financing costs ease.

Analyst inference

Recent inflation data have kept the Fed’s policy outlook uncertain; yesterday the odds of a hike were above half, but today they sit near four‑tenths, indicating reduced expectations for further tightening as price pressures ease.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch the upcoming consumer‑price index report; a stronger‑than‑expected reading could lift hike odds, raise bond yields and increase financing costs for companies. Analyst inference
2. Follow the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes; language hinting at more aggressive inflation concerns could boost hike probabilities, tightening credit conditions for borrowers. Analyst inference
3. Track Treasury yields, especially the two‑year note; a rise would signal higher expected rates, potentially lowering equity valuations and raising debt‑service costs for firms. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• NOW — ChangeNOW

Evidence

• x.com