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Bernstein raises prediction market forecast from $1T to $10T
Bernstein raised its prediction market forecast to $10 trillion in yearly trading by 2035, up from an expected $410 billion per year now, as platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket compete for dominance in the space.
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What happened
Bernstein raised its prediction market forecast to $10 trillion in yearly trading by 2035, up from an expected $410 billion per year now, as platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket compete for dominance in the space.
Confirmed
Global impact / market context
If this forecast proves right, prediction markets would grow from a niche activity into a large venue for pricing future events, drawing more trading revenue, investor attention, and regulatory scrutiny toward platforms that let people bet on outcomes.
Analyst inference
The raised forecast arrives while Kalshi and Polymarket are striving for dominance, which means competition for users and trading volume is intensifying. A larger projected market can influence how investors value these private platforms and how regulators approach event-based trading.
Analyst inference
What to watch
- Bernstein's forecast calls for $10 trillion in yearly prediction market trading by 2035, compared with an expected $410 billion per year now. Confirmed
- Watch whether Kalshi and Polymarket convert dominance efforts into sustainable revenue, since their spending on users and market-making could pressure costs before profits grow. Analyst inference
- Regulators could propose new rules for prediction markets, which means platforms may face licensing, reporting, or product limits that change how much trading they can offer. Proposed