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Why Medifast (MED) stock is trading up today

Medifast reported third quarter sales that beat Wall Street expectations. The company posted adjusted EBITDA excluding interest income of $1.9 million, up from $1.7 million a year earlier. Its chief executive said Medifast is on track to deliver a fourth-quarter profit.

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What happened

Medifast reported third quarter sales that beat Wall Street expectations. The company posted adjusted EBITDA excluding interest income of $1.9 million, up from $1.7 million a year earlier. Its chief executive said Medifast is on track to deliver a fourth-quarter profit.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

A sales beat and higher adjusted EBITDA, which means earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, suggest Medifast's core business is stabilizing. The CEO also said the company expects a fourth-quarter profit, a sign costs and revenue may be coming into better balance.

Analyst inference

Medifast stock is volatile, with 10 moves greater than 5% in the past year. The 6.2% gain suggests investors see the results as meaningful but not enough to fundamentally change how they view the business.

Analyst inference

What to watch

  1. Fourth-quarter revenue is guided to $55 million to $75 million, with earnings from breakeven to 25 cents a share, figures investors can compare against actual results. Confirmed
  2. Watch whether the Trilivy brand, Reset Fuelings, the new compensation plan and Coach Hub bring in more sales, since the CEO said these offerings are now in the market. Proposed
  3. Track whether Medifast reaches its stated goal of a fourth-quarter profit; missing it could undercut the view that its business is stabilizing. Analyst inference

Evidence