Gas production expected by mid-2028; $2.8 b already spent on it

What happened

BPCL will invest another $1.8 billion in its Mozambique gas project over the next couple of years, bringing its total investment to $4.5–4.6 billion. The project was 47% complete as of September 2026, with first gas expected by mid-2028. It has already spent around $2.8 billion.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

For BPCL, this is a large, multi-year commitment of shareholder cash toward overseas gas. Delays would tie up money longer without revenue, while early production would add supply and help the company sell gas in India through its signed purchase agreement.

Analyst inference

The project is funded by a group of eight to nine lenders at interest rates of 6% to 9%, so borrowing costs affect total returns. BPCL's 10% stake gives it around 1.3 mtpa of the 13 mtpa first-phase capacity, tying its outlook to liquefied natural gas, which is gas cooled for shipment.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. BPCL expects to finish marketing tie-ups for its entire 1 mtpa of Mozambican gas over the next two to three quarters, which will show whether buyers are secured before first gas arrives. Confirmed
2. Watch whether the company commits the remaining $1.8 billion as planned and whether the project stays on schedule for first gas by mid-2028, since slippage would delay revenue. Proposed
3. Track borrowing costs within the 6% to 9% range and any expansion to additional liquefaction trains, because higher interest or extra spending would raise total cash needs beyond current plans. Analyst inference

Evidence

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