Waste Management Q3 revenue slightly beats on higher volumes

What happened

Waste Management's third-quarter revenue slightly beat analyst expectations, while adjusted earnings per share missed them. The company returned $957 mln to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in the quarter.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Revenue grew on higher pricing, energy surcharges and more recycling and renewable energy volumes, but higher fuel and risk management costs offset collection and disposal efficiency gains. That cost pressure helps explain the profit miss despite sales growth, which matters for investor returns.

Analyst inference

Analysts on average rate the shares a buy, and the company expects 2026 revenue and free cash flow at the high end of its guidance ranges. Free cash flow, which means cash left after running and investing in the business, supports buybacks and dividends.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Waste Management expects 2026 revenue at the high end of its $26.275-$26.475 bln guidance and adjusted operating EBITDA, a measure of operating profit, within $8.15-$8.25 bln. Confirmed
2. The company expects 2026 free cash flow at the high end of its $3.75-$3.85 bln guidance, which shapes how much cash is available for buybacks and dividends. Confirmed
3. Watch whether higher fuel and risk management costs keep offsetting efficiency gains, since that would pressure profit per sale and could weigh on earnings even if revenue keeps growing. Analyst inference

Evidence

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