David Lawant: BTC Entering "Early Stages" of Bullish Regime

What happened

Bitcoin futures open interest, which is the total value of active futures contracts, is back above $50 billion for the first time this year. David Lawant, head of research at Anchorage Digital, says this shows vitality and that rising spot volume and thinning order books point to early stages of a Bitcoin market upturn.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Open interest is the total value of active futures contracts, which means more borrowed bets are in the market. If spot buying is also rising, that can push prices higher because actual coins are being bought rather than only side bets.

Analyst inference

Thin order books mean fewer resting buy and sell orders, so each trade moves price more. For investors, that can amplify both gains and drops, and it makes the $60 billion options market and volatility curve more important for judging regime change.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether Bitcoin futures open interest stays above $50 billion, the level it first crossed this year, and whether spot trading volume continues rising alongside it. Confirmed
2. Lawant proposes using the liquidity absorption ratio and covered call backtests, which are tests of option-selling strategies, to judge whether the market is absorbing supply or running out of buyers. Proposed
3. Watch how ETFs, which are baskets of assets that trade like stocks, and corporate treasury buyers change price discovery, because their steady purchases could absorb new supply and thin order books. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• BTC — Bitcoin

Evidence

• youtube.com