North Carolina imposes 6% tax on CFTC-regulated prediction markets

What happened

North Carolina enacted a 6% tax on prediction markets that are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, permitting Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operating legally if they remain CFTC‑registered.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

The tax creates a new cost for prediction‑market platforms, potentially raising fees for users and influencing where companies locate operations, while signaling that states can add fiscal layers to federally regulated digital‑asset markets.

Confirmed

Prediction markets are classified as commodity futures, so they fall under CFTC oversight. North Carolina was the first state to embed this federal jurisdiction in its own law, offering a template for other jurisdictions.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Whether Kalshi and Polymarket pass the tax cost onto traders, which could reduce trading volume if fees rise significantly. Analyst inference
2. If other states adopt similar taxes, creating a patchwork of state-level costs that may push platforms to consolidate operations in lower‑tax jurisdictions. Analyst inference
3. Potential regulatory responses from the CFTC, such as guidance on state taxes, which could clarify compliance requirements for prediction‑market operators. Analyst inference

Evidence

• cryptopolitan.com