Russia manufacturing nears stabilisation in October, PMI shows

What happened

Russia’s manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9 in October from 49.8 in September, with 50 separating growth from contraction. Output, new orders and employment still declined, but their falls eased; export orders contracted for a 12th month, while firms’ business confidence improved.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

The near-stable reading suggests weaker declines in domestic production and orders, but it does not show a return to growth. Continued export weakness can limit manufacturers’ sales, while falling employment and purchasing activity may restrain costs and demand for suppliers.

Analyst inference

Conditions are mixed: input prices continued to rise, though more slowly, while output price inflation eased under competitive pressure. That combination may squeeze profit per sale if firms cannot pass higher costs to customers; confidence improved, but remained historically weak.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Check whether the next PMI reading moves above 50, the survey’s dividing line between growth and contraction, and whether output and new orders follow. Analyst inference
2. Watch export orders, especially demand from Commonwealth of Independent States countries such as Kazakhstan, which respondents linked to the steepest export decline since May 2022. Confirmed
3. Track input and selling prices together: persistent cost increases alongside weak customer pricing could pressure manufacturers’ profits and make them more cautious about hiring or purchasing. Analyst inference

Evidence

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