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How does the ASX 200 perform in November?
Since 1980, the ASX 200 has averaged a 0.31% rise in November and finished higher 54% of the time. On a total return basis from 2001, November averaged a 1.0% gain and was higher 56% of the time.
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What happened
Since 1980, the ASX 200 has averaged a 0.31% rise in November and finished higher 54% of the time. On a total return basis from 2001, November averaged a 1.0% gain and was higher 56% of the time.
Confirmed
Global impact / market context
November's history of small average gains and only slightly better-than-even odds gives investors a modest seasonal backdrop for Australian shares. It matters more for planning than for bold bets, because past monthly patterns do not guarantee future returns.
Analyst inference
Markets enter November awkwardly. The Nasdaq sits 7.8% below its 6 October record high as investors question costly AI infrastructure and debt-funded spending, while megacap tech earnings showed soaring capex, which means heavy capital spending, and weak cash flows.
Analyst inference
What to watch
- Alphabet reported its first top and bottom line miss in nearly four years, with Q3 revenue up 25% to $127. Confirmed
- Watch whether investor scrutiny of AI infrastructure costs and debt-funded spending keeps pressuring megacap tech stocks, which could weigh on wider market confidence into November. Analyst inference
- Track whether the ASX 200 follows its historical November pattern of modest gains, considering the average 0.31% rise and 54% higher finish rate since 1980. Proposed