Indonesia posts $3.36 billion trade surplus in September

What happened

Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed to $3.36 billion in September, official data showed, still above a $1.9 billion Reuters poll forecast. The surplus was $3.55 billion a month earlier. Exports rose 11.87% from a year earlier to $27.59 billion, while imports rose 18.41% to $24.23 billion.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

A trade surplus means a country sells more goods abroad than it buys, bringing in foreign currency. Stronger-than-expected exports of processed palm oil, nickel and aluminium support revenue for producers in those industries and help offset Indonesia's rising costs for imported oil.

Analyst inference

Higher prices for some commodity exports have helped Indonesia, but as a net oil importer it pays more for imported crude, which means oil purchases that cost more than oil sales. That squeeze explains why the surplus narrowed even as exports beat forecasts.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Exports rose 11.87% year on year to $27.59 billion, supported by processed palm oil, nickel and aluminium shipments, beating the 6.45% increase analysts expected. Confirmed
2. Watch whether commodity prices, including crude oil tied to the Middle East conflict, keep lifting export values or raise import bills enough to shrink the surplus further. Proposed
3. Slower export growth or faster import costs could reduce foreign currency inflow, which affects companies selling palm oil, nickel and aluminium and investors holding Indonesian assets. Analyst inference

Evidence

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