INSIGHT: Grayscale's Head of Research Zach Pandl says Bitcoin's bottom may already be in if the Fed holds off on rate hikes. He pushes back on the "four-year cycle" theory, which points to a lower bottom in September or October.

Grayscale's head of research, Zach Pandl, said Bitcoin's bottom may already be in place if the Federal Reserve does not raise rates, and he rejected the four‑year cycle theory that predicts a lower bottom later this year.

Published: 2026-07-23T03:40:42+00:00

Updated: 2026-07-23T04:02:40.54267+00:00

What happened

Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, said Bitcoin’s bottom may already be in place if the Federal Reserve does not raise rates, and he rejected the four‑year cycle theory that predicts a lower bottom later this year.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Bitcoin’s price floor affects investors’ risk appetite and can influence capital flows into crypto funds. A stable or rising Bitcoin price also supports broader confidence in digital assets and related businesses.

Confirmed

Bitcoin’s price has been volatile as investors watch the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Expectations that the Fed will pause rate hikes have supported optimism for a price floor.

Confirmed

What to watch

If the Fed keeps rates steady, Bitcoin may retest its recent support level—price points where buying interest previously halted declines—potentially drawing additional buyers. Analyst inference
Should the Fed restart hikes, higher borrowing costs—interest rates on loans—could weigh on Bitcoin, possibly pushing it toward the lower end of the four‑year cycle forecast. Analyst inference
Market response to Pandl’s remarks may shift trader sentiment—overall mood—and affect liquidity, meaning the ease of buying or selling Bitcoin without large price moves. Analyst inference

Affected assets

BTC — Bitcoin

Evidence

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