1/ Three numbers stood out in @BinanceResearch's new Pre-IPO report: 87% of US firms with $100M+ in revenue are private. Anthropic and OpenAI Pre-IPO perp OI jumped from ~$1M in April to $160M+ in September. Binance held about one-third of the market. 🧵

What happened

Binance Research reported that 87% of US firms with over $100 million in revenue are private. Additionally, open interest in perpetual futures for Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO contracts surged from about $1 million in April to over $160 million in September, with Binance holding about one-third of the market.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

This shows growing investor interest in betting on private companies before they go public. High open interest means more money is tied up in these contracts, which could indicate strong speculation. This might affect how these companies are valued when they eventually list on stock exchanges.

Analyst inference

The rise in pre-IPO perpetual futures suggests that investors are seeking ways to gain exposure to private tech giants like Anthropic and OpenAI. Because these companies are not yet publicly traded, these contracts provide a way to speculate on their future value. This trend could influence broader market sentiment toward tech startups.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether the open interest in Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO perpetual futures continues to grow from the $160 million level seen in September. Confirmed
2. Monitor if other exchanges increase their market share in pre-IPO perpetual futures, potentially challenging Binance's current one-third share. Proposed
3. Track any announcements from Anthropic or OpenAI about IPO plans, as that could affect the value of these pre-IPO contracts. Analyst inference

Evidence

• x.com