AM Markets Need to Know: AI's payoff remains elusive, SpaceX raises $40B, and more

What happened

Stock index futures were mostly higher on Monday as Wall Street looked to recover from a tough week and awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Apollo's Torsten Slok said AI investments have not yet produced measurable financial gains for most non-technology companies.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If AI spending fails to lift revenue per worker and profit per sale outside tech, companies may keep paying for AI without earning more, which could squeeze cash available and pressure profit per sale across many industries.

Analyst inference

Investors face a split picture: profit per sale is rising at the Magnificent Seven but flat across the other 493 S&P 500 companies. SpaceX's $40 billion of debt for graphics processing units, that is chips used in AI, adds financing risk.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch SpaceX's $40 billion in debt financing for graphics processing units, scheduled for delivery in the first and second quarters of 2027; the debt is largely callable, meaning it can be repaid early under specified conditions. Confirmed
2. Track whether AI spending starts lifting revenue per worker and profit per sale at the other 493 S&P 500 companies, not just the Magnificent Seven, as evidence of broader productivity gains. Proposed
3. Watch for failures or consolidation among smaller AI infrastructure companies if credit conditions tighten, since Musk warned tighter credit could accelerate them, affecting suppliers, jobs, and borrowed money costs. Analyst inference

Evidence

• seekingalpha.com