Traders Expect a Fed Rate Hike-But Not This Time — WSJ

What happened

Interest-rate futures showed about a 90% chance the Federal Reserve would hold rates at its meeting today, while traders put 92% odds on a rate increase by the December 2026 meeting, according to CME Group data cited by the Wall Street Journal.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

A near-certain pause alongside strong odds of a later increase means borrowing costs for companies and households likely stay high rather than fall, which can pressure capital spending and make future revenue and profits harder to forecast.

Analyst inference

Firmer September consumer and wholesale prices reinforced the case for another increase, and most Fed officials projected one more move this year. Rate futures, which are contracts that bet on future rates, now lean toward a delay rather than an end to tightening.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. The Federal Reserve's rate decision today, with futures pricing about a 90% chance of no change, according to CME Group. Confirmed
2. The December 2026 meeting, where traders put 92% odds on a rate increase, based on interest-rate futures data. Confirmed
3. Upcoming consumer and wholesale price reports, which could strengthen or weaken the case for a rate increase before year end. Analyst inference

Evidence

• Original source link unavailable