Glassnode Says Bitcoin Rebounds Remain Local Rallies, Not a Trend Reversal Bitcoin remains below both the roughly $68,500 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and the $75,800 True Market Mean, with Glassnode's on-chain models continuing to place the market in a capitulation regime.

What happened

Glassnode reports Bitcoin’s recent price gains are limited to local rallies; the cryptocurrency is still trading below the approximately $68,500 short‑term holder cost basis and the $75,800 true market mean, keeping it in a capitulation regime.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Because Bitcoin is below the cost basis of short‑term holders, many investors remain in loss, which can suppress buying and keep downside risk high; the capitulation regime signals ongoing selling pressure that may curb any broader price recovery.

Analyst inference

Bitcoin has been on a downtrend after recent highs, and on‑chain data show supply shifting to long‑term holders while prices stay low, indicating weak market confidence that can spill over to other crypto assets.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Monitor Bitcoin price relative to the short‑term holder cost basis; breaking above the $68,500 level could reduce selling pressure and spark broader buying interest. Analyst inference
2. Track the True Market Mean metric; a sustained move above $75,800 may signal the end of the capitulation regime and a shift toward price stabilization. Analyst inference
3. Watch on‑chain activity such as large‑holder (whale) accumulation and exchange inflows; rising accumulation can support price, while heavy inflows could foreshadow further declines. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• BTC — Bitcoin

Evidence

• x.com