US manufacturing stays in expansion as S&P Global moderates, ISM picks up

What happened

US manufacturing surveys showed continued expansion but mixed momentum. S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI eased to 54.9 from 55.9, while ISM’s rose to 55.5 from 54.5; readings above 50 indicate expansion. S&P Global reported faster hiring and sharper cost pressures, while ISM reported stronger orders and production but still-elevated prices.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

The combination points to demand supporting factory activity and hiring, while higher energy, transport and metals costs, tariffs, and longer delivery times can raise manufacturers’ expenses. If firms cannot pass those costs on, profit per sale may shrink; if they do, customers may face higher prices.

Analyst inference

The surveys differ: S&P Global showed slower growth in output and orders, while ISM reported stronger production and a slight rise in new orders. Both remained above the 50 expansion threshold, but cost pressures persisted, and ISM respondents’ comments grew more negative despite its headline improvement.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Watch whether future survey readings show orders and production accelerating or slowing; sustained demand would support factory output, while weakening orders could reduce production plans and staffing. Analyst inference
2. Track whether energy, transport, metals, tariffs and delivery delays continue to raise costs, since further increases could pressure manufacturers’ profits or feed into customer prices. Analyst inference
3. Compare the next S&P Global and ISM releases for changes in their prices, employment and supplier-delivery measures; the latest reports showed mixed growth signals and elevated cost pressures. Analyst inference

Evidence

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