US midterms may raise shutdown, debt risks; keep tariff uncertainty high: ICICI Bank

What happened

An ICICI Bank report said US midterm elections could raise the risk of a government shutdown and a debt ceiling standoff, while keeping tariff uncertainty high. It added that a major shift in President Donald Trump's policy direction remains unlikely.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If Democrats win Congress, businesses could face more oversight, legislative fights and tariff uncertainty rather than an automatic removal of tariffs. That uncertainty can delay capital spending, which means company investment in new projects, and complicate planning for costs and revenue.

Analyst inference

The report assigns Democrats a 63 per cent probability of winning both chambers, with the House at 90.9 per cent and the Senate at 64 per cent. Investors holding US-focused companies may weigh shutdown and debt ceiling risks against limited prospects for rapid tariff changes.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether Democrats gain control of both chambers, as the report assigns that outcome a 63 per cent probability, with the House at 90.9 per cent and the Senate at 64 per cent. Confirmed
2. Watch whether Democrats push for a review of some tariffs or seek to limit the President's ability to impose them, and whether a presidential veto blocks such legislation. Proposed
3. Watch for signs that tariff uncertainty is delaying company investment decisions, which could affect capital spending, costs and revenue across industries exposed to US trade policy. Analyst inference

Evidence

• Original source link unavailable