Yardeni Says Analysts Still See S&P 500 Earnings Near $500 Per Share by 2028

What happened

Ed Yardeni said Wall Street analysts still see S&P 500 2028 earnings near $500 per share despite selloffs in Alphabet and Intel. His own $450 forecast is about 9% below the $493 consensus in his October 24 note.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Analysts' 2028 profit estimate of about $493 a share is the base for long-term stock valuations, which means the price investors pay for each dollar of expected profit. If rising borrowing costs for AI projects cut that estimate, the same index would look more expensive unless prices fall.

Analyst inference

The S&P 500 is up 11.4% this year while expected earnings rose 31%, so the forward price-to-earnings ratio, which means the price divided by expected profit, fell 13.5%. Yardeni applies an 18.6 multiple to 2027 earnings of $425 to reach his 7,900 year-end target.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether analysts' 2028 S&P 500 earnings estimate of $493 per share holds after the Alphabet and Intel selloffs, since Yardeni's $450 forecast sits about 9% below that consensus. Confirmed
2. Watch borrowing costs for companies funding AI projects: higher interest payments would raise costs, which means less profit per sale and possibly lower 2028 earnings estimates, weighing on valuations. Analyst inference
3. Watch when AI spending actually produces earnings, since Yardeni said the timing is unclear: delayed profit would leave capital spending high with no matching revenue, pressuring estimates. Analyst inference

Evidence

• binance.com