Morningstar analyst sees Rolls-Royce stock jumping to 1,520p: will it?

What happened

Morningstar analyst Ollie Smith said Rolls-Royce’s fair value is 1,520p, implying a roughly 20% rise from the article’s stated current share price of 1,264p. He expects demand to benefit from European rearmament and a civil aviation industry supercycle; the company’s next trading update is due Nov. 12.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If the analyst’s demand outlook proves right, stronger defense and civil aviation orders could support Rolls-Royce’s revenue and profit per sale. But the 1,520p figure is an analyst estimate, not a company commitment, so investors need evidence in trading updates before treating it as a likely outcome.

Analyst inference

The article says Rolls-Royce shares have risen from a year-to-date low of 1,159p to 1,264p, but remain below a 1,586p high. It also reports a share-price drop after competitors GE Aerospace and Safran published results showing solid businesses with challenges.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. At the Nov. 12 trading update, check whether Rolls-Royce reports a material change in its outlook and whether management discusses 2027 defense gains compared with 2025. Confirmed
2. Look for evidence that European rearmament and civil aviation demand are translating into orders, revenue, and profit; the article presents these as expected sources of support. Analyst inference
3. Compare Rolls-Royce’s next results with the challenges reported by GE Aerospace and Safran to judge whether sector conditions could limit demand or increase costs. Analyst inference

Evidence

• invezz.com