Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks

What happened

Glassnode data shows Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of US trading sessions across the 90 sessions through Wednesday, ending a prolonged period when it won fewer sessions. The article also reports that the S&P 500 gained an average of 10.7% in the three months after seven specified US midterm elections since 1922.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Bitcoin’s return to an even split suggests its recent relative weakness against US stocks has eased, but does not establish sustained outperformance. If the win rate rises above 50% and stays there, investor comparisons could shift toward Bitcoin, potentially changing demand for the asset; the article gives no evidence that this has happened yet.

Analyst inference

The article places Bitcoin’s recent record alongside historical stock performance after seven midterms where Democrats won both chambers under a Republican president: the S&P 500 averaged a 10.7% gain over the next three months. That history is a comparison, not a forecast or evidence of future returns.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Check whether Glassnode’s rolling 90-session measure rises above 50% and stays there; the article says that would indicate Bitcoin regaining strength against equities. Analyst inference
2. Compare Bitcoin and S&P 500 returns over subsequent sessions to see whether the even split develops into sustained outperformance rather than a temporary improvement. Analyst inference
3. Track whether the historical post-midterm stock pattern is relevant to the current period; the article reports an average gain, not a guaranteed outcome. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• BTC — Bitcoin

Evidence

• cointelegraph.com