Coinbase Target Cut to $250, Robinhood to Benefit From Prediction Markets: Bernstein

What happened

Bernstein cut its Coinbase price target to $250 from $330 and now forecasts a full-year loss as crypto trading volumes stall. It cut its 2026 Coinbase revenue forecast by about 32% to $5.5 billion and expects a loss of $2.60 per share.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Lower trading volume means fewer fees for Coinbase, which hits revenue and turns profit into loss. A lower price target signals analysts expect weaker future cash flow, which can pressure the stock and make investors question crypto-linked business models.

Analyst inference

Crypto trading across the industry is stalling, so Bernstein removed bullish crypto price assumptions from its estimates. It sees stablecoin revenue carrying Coinbase growth, while prediction markets and derivatives are a bright spot, with Robinhood's prediction market revenue projected to overtake its crypto revenue by 2028.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Coinbase spot trading is expected to stagnate near $150 billion in the third quarter, so watch whether actual volume falls below or recovers above that level. Confirmed
2. Bernstein suggests prediction markets could generate about $2 billion in revenue by 2028, up from roughly $600 million earlier this year, so watch event-contract adoption. Proposed
3. Watch whether Robinhood's prediction market revenue reaches the projected $1.7 billion by 2028 and overtakes its $1.6 billion crypto revenue, which would shift its revenue mix. Analyst inference

Evidence

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