CryptoQuant: BTC "Bull Run Has Started" - 3x to 5x Cycle Outlook | Ki Young Ju

What happened

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said he expects Bitcoin to rise about 3 to 5 times from its lows, not another 10 times, because institutional ETF and custody flows dampen volatility. He also said the bear market ended this summer.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

If large institutional buyers using ETFs, which are baskets of Bitcoin that trade on stock exchanges, and custody services hold Bitcoin more steadily, price swings could shrink. That would change how investors size positions and could reduce the payoff from simple buy-the-dip strategies tied to past boom-and-bust cycles.

Analyst inference

The article points to institutional cost basis, the average price paid by ETF buyers, sitting in the low-to-mid eighty-thousand-dollar range as a bull-bear line, and nearly $700 billion in realized capital, meaning total profits and losses locked in on chain. Those figures suggest institutions now anchor Bitcoin's cycle, so whale selling matters less than ETF and custody wallet flows.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether ETF and custody wallets keep accumulating Bitcoin, since Ki Young Ju said these flows now dampen volatility and define the cycle's cash available channel. Confirmed
2. Track the institutional cost basis, the average price ETF buyers paid, in the low-to-mid eighty-thousand-dollar range as a possible bull-bear line, because a sustained break below it could signal institutional selling pressure. Proposed
3. Monitor whether the four-year cycle pattern breaks, since institutional flows replacing whale behavior would weaken timing models and force investors to rely more on behavioral signals than price levels. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• BTC — Bitcoin

Evidence

• youtube.com