Nebius Stock Crashes 20% as Massive AI Spending Plans Rattle Investors

What happened

Nebius shares fell about 20% in morning trading Thursday after its outlook. The company targets $12 billion to $13 billion in 2027 revenue and expects capital spending of $40 billion to $45 billion next year, partly supported by customer-linked funding. Third-quarter revenue rose 571.3% to $980.8 million, but Nebius reported a GAAP loss of 13 cents per share.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Nebius is trying to turn heavy AI infrastructure investment into much higher revenue, but spending is planned to exceed the 2027 revenue target. Customer advances and contract-linked funding could cover much of the investment budget, reducing the immediate cash burden; whether growth earns back those costs remains uncertain.

Analyst inference

The outlook presents investors with a trade-off: rapid recent revenue growth and a large 2027 target versus sharply higher planned spending and a current per-share loss. Revenue delayed from 2026 into early 2027 also weakens the near-term forecast, potentially testing confidence in the growth timetable.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether Nebius reaches its $12 billion to $13 billion 2027 revenue target; that would show whether infrastructure investment is translating into sales. Analyst inference
2. Track whether customer advances and contract-linked funding cover the expected 75% to 85% of the 2027 investment budget, as the company forecasts. Proposed
3. Check whether revenue delayed from 2026 appears in early 2027 and whether the 2026 forecast remains near the bottom of its stated range. Analyst inference

Evidence

• gurufocus.com