Trump approval rises from record low to 32% ahead of midterm election, Reuters Ipsos poll finds

What happened

A Reuters/Ipsos poll found President Trump's public approval rating rose to 32%, up one percentage point from last week's record low, before the November 3 election that decides which party controls Congress.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

A low approval rating can make it harder for the president's party to keep control of Congress. Losing either chamber would complicate his agenda in his second term's last two years, which could affect regulation and spending decisions.

Analyst inference

The poll shows registered voters favoring Democrats over Republicans 47% to 36% on a generic ballot, which asks which party they would pick for Congress. That lead narrowed slightly from an earlier survey, suggesting a competitive national race.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch the November 3 election result, which decides which party controls Congress, because control of either chamber shapes the president's ability to pass his agenda. Confirmed
2. Track generic ballot polls, which show national party preference, for signs of whether the Democratic lead widens or narrows, since a bigger gap could change expectations for Congress. Analyst inference
3. Watch how undecided voters lean, since including their responses tightened the race to a Democratic lead of nine percentage points, which could shift the realistic outcome for party control. Analyst inference

Evidence

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