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Why Bitcoin's Latest Bounce Back to $65,000 Might Not Last
Bitcoin rose about 13% from a late‑June low near $58,000 to trade close to $65,000, but on‑chain data shows the move is a relief rally rather than a solid recovery, with unrealized losses still larger than during the February crash and spot demand shrinking, while the price sits below most major cost‑basis models.
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What happened
Bitcoin rose about 13% from a late‑June low near $58,000 to trade close to $65,000, but on‑chain data shows the move is a relief rally rather than a solid recovery, with unrealized losses still larger than during the February crash and spot demand shrinking, while the price sits below most major cost‑basis models.
Confirmed
Global impact / market context
If the bounce is only a temporary relief rally, traders could face further price drops, increasing risk for investors holding Bitcoin and potentially limiting new buying, which may keep market sentiment cautious.
Analyst inference
Crypto markets are currently seeing reduced spot buying and many on‑chain cost‑basis models indicating that most holders would incur losses at current prices, a pattern that often precedes broader sell pressure.
Analyst inference
What to watch
- Changes in on‑chain spot demand; a continued decline would suggest weaker buying interest and could push prices lower. Analyst inference
- Updates to cost‑basis models; if more models show Bitcoin below break‑even levels, more holders may sell to cut losses. Analyst inference
- Any large‑scale institutional moves; fresh inflows could turn the relief rally into a genuine recovery, while outflows would reinforce the downside risk. Analyst inference
Affected assets
- BTC — Bitcoin