Key facts: Upstart Revenue Rises 34%; 2026 Outlook Cut, Target Falls

What happened

Upstart reported third-quarter revenue of $370.5 million, up 34% year over year, and net income of $36.6 million. Loan originations rose 44% to $4.1 billion, but the company cut its 2026 revenue outlook to about $1.35 billion.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

The combination points to stronger recent lending activity but a weaker longer-term revenue outlook. If the lower forecast reflects slower growth, Upstart may generate less revenue than previously expected, which can reduce investors’ expectations for future earnings and make its shares less attractive.

Analyst inference

The supplied summary says the average 12-month price target fell to $35.06 from $36.88, while the consensus rating remained Buy. It also says the target implied about 65% upside from the November 2 close, but gives no share price or date year.

Confirmed

What to watch

1. Check Upstart’s next reported results against its reduced 2026 revenue outlook; revenue growth below that level could indicate that recent lending gains are not translating into the forecast. Analyst inference
2. Look for further details on funding sources: Upstart said over half of platform funding comes from committed capital and co-investments, which may affect how much lending it can support. Confirmed
3. Track the effects of ending auto refinance offerings in the second quarter of 2026, including whether the change alters loan originations or revenue from that business. Analyst inference

Evidence

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