LATEST: Galaxy says 69% of retail traders on Polymarket's international platform finished below break-even, based on onchain settlement data covering 2.9M accounts.

What happened

Galaxy reported that 69% of retail traders on Polymarket's international platform finished below break-even, based on onchain settlement data covering 2.9 million accounts.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

This suggests most retail traders on Polymarket's international platform lost money after costs. If that pattern continues, retail traders may reduce activity, cutting platform revenue and demand for related crypto assets and services.

Analyst inference

Polymarket is a prediction market where people trade on future event outcomes. A large share of retail traders finishing below break-even suggests speculative trading carries high risk, which could make investors more cautious about similar platforms.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Galaxy based its finding on onchain settlement data covering 2.9 million accounts, so the reported 69% figure rests on blockchain records rather than survey estimates. Confirmed
2. Traders should consider tracking whether Polymarket publishes updated break-even data, because fresh settlement figures could show whether recent retail traders performed better or worse. Proposed
3. Watch whether lower retail trading activity reduces revenue for Polymarket and similar prediction markets, potentially affecting related crypto assets like CMC20 through weaker demand. Analyst inference

Affected assets

• CMC20 — CoinMarketCap 20 Index DTF

Evidence

• x.com