TSLA Is The Worst-Performing Mag 7 Stock This Year But Leads The Pack In October – Barclays Sees 19% Upside Potential

What happened

Barclays upgraded Tesla to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its price target to $450 from $370, about 19% upside. Analyst Dan Levy cited a possible Tesla and SpaceX merger, after Elon Musk said committees are exploring a combination, though he said an agreement is not certain.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Tesla's third-quarter revenue of $28.05 billion missed estimates, deliveries fell 2% to 486,532 units, and adjusted earnings dropped to $0.48 per share. Yet an upgrade based on merger hopes shows how deal expectations can shift investor views even when the car business is slowing.

Analyst inference

Tesla is the worst-performing Magnificent 7 stock in 2026 but leads the group in October with gains over 7.3%. That gap suggests investors are weighing merger and robotaxi hopes against weak current vehicle sales.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether Tesla and SpaceX committees formally propose a combination, since Musk said a deal is not a certainty and any agreement would need approval and terms. Confirmed
2. Barclays' $450 target assumes a possible takeover premium for Tesla shareholders, which means extra value paid to buy a company; watch whether other analysts adopt similar assumptions. Proposed
3. Track Tesla's automotive revenue and deliveries next quarter to see if growth resumes as Barclays expects, because slower sales would undercut the upgrade case beyond merger hopes. Analyst inference

Evidence

• stocktwits.com