Semiconductor ETF sinks to below 200-DMA for first time in over a year

What happened

The VanEck Semiconductor exchange-traded fund fell 9% in Friday mid-afternoon trading, dropping below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June 2025, during a wider technology-led selloff. Amazon and Intel earnings disappointed, dragging the Nasdaq down over 3% and toward its worst day since June.

Confirmed

Global impact / market context

Falling below the 200-day average, a widely followed trend line, can push trend-following investors to trim holdings. Because the fund holds chipmakers like Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor, reduced demand for these shares could raise borrowing costs and slow capital spending across the semiconductor industry.

Analyst inference

Weak results from Amazon and Intel are weighing on technology shares broadly. The fund's relative strength index, which measures how fast prices have moved, sits at 35, above the 30 oversold level. This suggests selling pressure exists but has not yet reached an extreme that often precedes a rebound.

Analyst inference

What to watch

1. Watch whether the fund closes below its 200-day moving average, a level last breached in June 2025, or recovers above it by the end of Friday's session. Confirmed
2. Watch the relative strength index: a drop below 30, the oversold threshold, would signal heavier selling and could prompt some investors to buy chip shares at lower prices. Analyst inference
3. Watch whether other large holdings such as Nvidia, Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices report further weak results or guidance, which could extend losses beyond the current selloff. Proposed

Evidence

• seekingalpha.com