Saudi Arabia's Economy Shrinks 3.8% as Oil Output Falls

What happened

Saudi Arabia’s real economy shrank 3.8% from a year earlier in the third quarter. The statistics authority reported that oil activity fell 20.4%, while non-oil activity grew 1.9%. Citi analysts said lower oil output accounted for the full decline.

Global impact / market context

The figures show how reduced oil production weighed on overall growth, even as other activity expanded. Citi said higher oil prices cushioned export receipts and government revenue, but oil output remained well below capacity.

What to watch

1. Check for new oil output figures, because they would show whether the main drag on growth is easing.
2. Check the next non-oil activity figures, because non-oil activity grew 1.9% in the third quarter.
3. Check for updates on oil prices and their effect on export receipts and government revenue, which Citi said were cushioned by elevated prices.

Affected assets

• Oil
• Saudi Arabia Gross Domestic Product

Evidence

• Infoway News — Oil Output Cuts Entirely Responsible for Saudi Arabia's GDP Decline, Citi Says — Market Talk 2026-11-04T08:06:00+00:00
• Infoway News — Saudi Arabia's Economy Shrinks 3.8% as Oil Output Falls 2026-11-02T07:27:00+00:00
• Infoway News — Saudi Economy's Contraction Eases Before Houthi Conflict Escalation 2026-11-01T08:05:57+00:00
• Incident timeline — Oil Output Cuts Entirely Responsible for Saudi Arabia's GDP Decline, Citi Says — Market Talk
• Incident timeline — Saudi Arabia's Economy Shrinks 3.8% as Oil Output Falls
• Incident timeline — Saudi Economy's Contraction Eases Before Houthi Conflict Escalation